The Vikings Viking’d

      From a macro-lense, 2023 was another Vikings season mired in mediocrity, another opportunity to break a frustrating streak squandered. Not since 2008 -2009 have the Vikings made the playoffs in back-to-back seasons, reaching the dance just five times over the 13 seasons since then. Such is life in the NFL for most teams, but the Vikings have been “most teams” since 2001. 

     When you reflect on the 2023 season with a bit more nuance, you might feel differently about the team’s outlook. After a disappointing 1-4 start to the season, the team kicked it back into gear, rattling off three straight wins, including a massive victory over the conference champion 49ers. At 4-4 and surging, the team lost Kirk Cousins to a season-ending Achilles injury on the heels (get it?) of Justin Jefferson’s hamstring injury that saw him miss seven games (and most of an eighth). The defense had improved massively under new DC Brian Flores (who will return for 2024) with very similar personnel. Cam Bynum, Josh Metellus, and Ivan Pace Jr. were major bright spots.

     Two more wins behind newly acquired Josh Dobbs (after Jaren Hall went down early in his first start) to round out a five-game winning streak had fans cautiously hopeful. Those hopes were quickly dashed as Dobbs and the improved defense crumbled amidst a 1-6 finish. Dobbs’ heroics and the Week 10 shutout of Las Vegas were lightning in a bottle, the consequent thunder of which has yet to ring out.

      So, how can the organization find sustained success? Perhaps this depends on one’s definition of the phrase in the context of the NFL. 

True Contenders

     The Chiefs, of course, are a bit of an outlier when we broach this topic. 

Step 1. A) Hire one of the greatest Head Coaches of all time 

        Step 1. B) Hire one of the greatest playoff game-planners of all time as your DC, who apparently is content with a lifetime coordinator gig

Step 2. Draft the greatest quarterback of the generation 

This is not a particularly replicable team-building strategy, so let’s take a look at some other teams that have been consistently effective over the last decade. 

     The Bills missed the playoffs for 17 consecutive seasons from 2000-2016 (something that, for what it’s worth, would never happen to the Vikings under current ownership) before Tyrod Taylor led them to a wild card berth and early exit in 2017, Sean McDermott’s first season as Head Coach. With a defense built largely through free agency and featuring some lucrative deals, the team decided to look to the draft for its QB upgrade, where it found cannon-arm project, Josh Allen. In the same offseason, Minnesota was also self-aware enough to know they needed to upgrade the QB position despite the playoff berth. 

     As we now know, Buffalo’s project is giving them a chance in January year in and year out. After a growing-pain-laden 2018, Buffalo has made the playoffs in five consecutive seasons. The most significant move made to keep this team rolling was trading for a #1 receiver (Diggs). Outside of that, most of their success has stemmed from drafting, developing well, and retaining the safety duo of Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde that spearheaded the Herd’s return to relevance once acquired in 2016.

     San Francisco, on the other hand, missed the playoffs five seasons in a row following three straight trips to the Conference Championship and a Super Bowl berth. Kyle Shanahan took over and implemented an offensive system that propelled Matt Ryan and the Falcons to a Super Bowl as the 49ers soared back into contention. 

Once they saw their window may be at hand, they pulled very few punches. They gave Trent Williams record-setting Left Tackle money to set the tone for their offensive line. They built the offense through the running game and the low-ceiling play of Jimmy Gorropolo at QB. When that group fell short in the Super Bowl, they traded the farm to move up and acquire Trey Lance, who has since fizzled out. Despite that enormous whiff at what some consider to be the best path to long-term success, they managed to find a QB in the 7th round who can conduct Shanahan’s offense well enough, and his low cap hit has allowed them to acquire high-end talents like Javon Hargrave, Christian McCaffrey, Chase Young, and Charvarius Ward. Now, they are right back in the Super Bowl.

The Texans plugged a top rookie quarterback right into a roster with plenty of holes and found success. The Packers sat their 1st-Round QB behind one of the greats for three seasons before he took over and had success. The Lions made it to the final four with a re-tread QB who was written off by many upon his arrival.

All of this is to illustrate that there is no one right way to build a contender. The Vikings’ path will likely have elements of all of these situations, but which ones are possible? What could Minnesota’s next true contender look like? How can we use this off-season as a step in that direction? Well, let’s see what we’re working with. 

2024 Internal Moves 

     As it currently stands, the Vikes have $24.66m in available cap space (per overthecap.com) with several avenues to create more before free agency, so let’s start there. 

Cuts/Retirements

• Harrison Smith Retires. This one hurts, but it feels like the most likely outcome. Slated to make $19.21m in 2024, the veteran safety will either be taking a significant pay cut, being released, or retiring. For this exercise, I will assume retirement, but a cut will function the same way financially. Harry retiring saves the team $11.38m
• Cutting Dean Lowry frees up $2.1m. Lowry was a disappointment this year when he saw the field. 

Restructures

• A Full Restructure of TJ Hockenson’s contract would free up $7.4m in 2024 and I think this move makes a lot of sense. TJ may miss a significant portion of 2024, so why not push some of his cap hit into future years when he’s more likely to play a full season? TJ is phenomenal when healthy, so this is a can I could see the Vikings being willing to kick.
• Restructure Brian O’Neill. 2025 and 2026 cap hits will get a little sticky, but O’Neill bounced back well from his Achilles injury on January 1st, 2023. I’d think that’s why the front office held off on restructuring him last year, and that they saw what they needed to this season to bet on his future stability. A full conversion of O’Neill’s $13.8m in non-guaranteed salary and bonuses saves ~ $9.1m in 2024.

Extensions

• Extend Kirk Cousins. This is the move or non-move on which the entire off-season hinges. My pal Josh and I will discuss at length how this will look if Kirk walks in a video on Bite-Size Sports’ YouTube Channel after Part Two of this article is published, but for this exercise, I’m going to extend him. 2yr/$75m in new money (if he’s self-aware and wants to be here, I think he takes this) that will fully guarantee his first season with very light guarantees in the second season and a void year tacked on that will leave a dead cap hit of $18.6m in 2026 (if he stays for ‘25; if cut after 2024, dead cap accelerates). I don’t think the Vikings should go any higher than this. This move adds about  $11m to his 2024 cap hit.

• Extend Danielle Hunter. Don’t even blink. Extend Danielle at market value, which Spotrac.com projects to be ~$20m annually, for three more seasons. The way he’s performed has been just a tick below the absolute top tier of edge players like Parsons, Garrett, Crosby, Bosa, and Watt – Hunter has a legitimate case for sixth-best edge rusher in the NFL. 29-32 is a tricky age range to project for a player whose athleticism is a major asset, but I feel Hunter has several more productive seasons left in the tank. Given the state of the rest of the edge room, it’s difficult to picture them letting Hunter walk. This could look like 4yr/$90m in new money (4yr/$104.9m total) with a $28m signing bonus and $62m guaranteed. The 2024 cap hit increases by just under $1m to $15.75m.

• Extend Justin Jefferson. Blank check. Do not try your luck again at finding another top 5 receiver in exchange for your top five receiver. Jefferson is a walking incubator for the QB of the future. He will likely become the highest-paid non-QB in the NFL with this deal. I project  4yr/$138m in new money for JJ, and any buyer’s remorse would be ill-founded. This extension saves $5m in 2024.

      These internal, pre-FA moves will increase the 2024 cap space to $46.8m; now we’re ready to improve the team through free agency and the draft in Part 2!