Wild Card Weekend is just around the corner, which means there are just 14 teams remaining with a chance to hoist the Lombardi. And while anything can happen in the playoffs, there is definitely an order of first to worst. So, here are my playoff power rankings, brought to you by Bite Size Sports.
Disclaimer: This is not a Bite Size Sports consensus ranking. Please direct all ranking discussion/hate to me, @Jlime8. Alright, enough dilly-dallying, let’s get to it!
Tier 1: The Cream of the Crop
- Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens essentially boast both a top-five offense and a top-five defense regarding scoring and yards. Lamar Jackson is averaging nearly 230 passing yards per game and is adding just over 50 rushing yards per game in an MVP-worthy season. They lead the league in rushing yards per game (156.5) and in sacks per game (3.5). My point? They are elite on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball, with quality Special Teams to boot. Not to mention, they handled the top of the NFC in prime time just a few weeks ago.
2. San Francisco 49ers
How’s that for a segue? While they did indeed lose to the Ravens quite handily, this team hasn’t done much wrong this season. This team is also in the top five in many offensive and defensive stat categories, and they have been beating teams handily in their own right. They are tied with Dallas for second in average scoring margin (+11.4) and lead the league in yards per pass attempt (9.3), which is a whole yard more than second-place Miami. Sure, they had a three-game losing streak early on, but they were missing OT Trent Williams and WR Deebo Samuel. With healthy weapons led by Christian McCaffrey, this team can score on anyone. They also boast some of the best defensive talent in the league, with Fred Warner, Nick Bosa, and Charvarius Ward. It’s hard to envision any other team coming out of the NFC this season.
Tier 2: Still Elite, But With Flaws
3. Kansas City Chiefs
I can already tell this is too high, given their current run of form. And yet, I find myself unable to bet too much against an Andy Reid – Patrick Mahomes duo that has done all of this before. Further, as my friend Simon informs me, they have an all-pro defense to hang their hat on this year. With a defense to keep them in any game this post-season, I have to think they’ll finally curb their case of the dropsies and make a run. George Karlaftis and Chris Jones both have 10.5 sacks on the season, and their defense starts with that dominance up front. L’Jarius Sneed has a commendable 14 passes defended, oftentimes against a team’s number-one receiver, and the second and third levels of this defense have played very well throughout the season. Their offense has been oddly bad in recent weeks, but it’s the playoffs now, and I can’t bring myself to rank them lower than this.
4. Buffalo Bills
This team has possibly the highest ceiling of any team in the NFL, but they also have a pretty low floor. I’m betting here on a team that’s hungry to avenge previous playoff exits, and that’s also on a great run. They won their last five games of the season, three of which were against other playoff teams (Miami, Dallas, and Kansas City), and their loss before that was a hard-fought battle against Philadelphia. I’m all about good running games this year, and the Bills are seventh overall in rushing yards per game. Not to mention, Josh Allen has set a ridiculous career high in rushing touchdowns with 15. If they can just avoid the turnovers that Josh Allen creates when he’s overly aggressive, this team has the potential to beat anybody.
5. Detroit Lions
Winning three of their past four games is great, though some would argue that two wins against the Vikings and one against the Broncos isn’t all that impressive. Their one loss, however, was the heartbreaker against the Cowboys, a game in which one could argue they were the better team. In all honesty, I feel the Lions and Cowboys are close here, but I’m betting on the top-five offensive line of the Lions, led by PFF’s highest-rated offensive tackle, Penei Sewell.
PFF is not the final word on a team’s performance, but the Lions are also a top-five rushing team in yards per game (135.9). This team has been consistently good in the trenches all year. They need to watch out for the untimely Jared Goff turnovers and a pretty leaky secondary, but they should compete past the wild card round.
6. Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott is playing well, CeeDee Lamb is unguardable, and their defense, led by Micah Parsons, should scare everyone. They have playmakers all over the place and are much more disciplined in the turnover world this year. I know I ranked the Lions just ahead, but their opportunistic defense could be the difference in a matchup against Detroit, making it possible to see a classic NFC title matchup between the Cowboys and the 49ers. Fans from the 90’s would feel quite a surge of nostalgia. However, they do have a flaw in that their running game has been far from great. They manage just over four yards per attempt and have only eclipsed the 100-yard mark as a team once in the past four games. That mark was 131 against the Commanders, and it doesn’t necessarily instill confidence heading into the playoffs.
7. Miami Dolphins
This was the hardest team for me to rank. If I did these rankings with my heart, they would be even higher. Even though their offense hasn’t been the juggernaut of late that we have come to expect, they are still running the ball well. The Baltimore game was bad, but they managed to run for over 100 yards in that contest and then again against the Bills in Week 18. They may be lacking some big wins, but in my eyes, they’ve held their own against some of the league’s best. If they can keep Tua upright and in rhythm, they’ll get more of those home run plays that could help them pull some upsets this post-season. Their defense has been respectable as well, but the injuries to their EDGE rushers could prove too much to overcome. However, I like to think that Mike McDaniel will pull out some plays he’s been saving for the playoffs, and they are a fun upset pick in the wild card round over the Chiefs.
8. Philadelphia Eagles
It’s really hard for me to see this team even this far down, but there is also an argument to drop them further. They are in quite the downward spiral, losers of three of their last four games, with a minus-8 turnover differential in that span. They still boast a top-10 offense in terms of scoring and yards, but their defense has struggled. The Eagles’ secondary has given up a lot of yards all season, but more alarming is that Philly’s defense is 24th in sack percentage. The defensive line is supposed to be one of their main strengths, and it still can be, but it hasn’t looked good recently. It’s still hard to argue with the experience of Philadelphia’s offensive line and Jalen Hurts’ poise, but I’m not predicting them to do much aside from beating Tampa.
Tier 3: Stories Of The Year
9. Cleveland Browns
Who would have thought this team would be where they are? Even the Cleveland faithful couldn’t have predicted this. And yet, they have an insane defense, with my favorite stat being that they allow less than 165 passing yards per game. This is a championship-level defense, and now that Joe Flacco, of all people, has rejuvenated this offense, they will be an extremely tough out. It’s still hard to picture this team making it all the way, but we will not soon forget the 2023-24 Cleveland Browns and part of me wants to see them make a run.
10. Los Angeles Rams
I can’t speak for everyone, but after last year I had written off the Rams heading into this season. It seems so obvious now that they are good, however. Matthew Stafford looks healthy, and has two elite receiving weapons in Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Kyren Williams has taken over this running game and finishes the season 3rd in total rushing yards, bt accomplished this in fewer games than every other back in the I can’t speak for everyone, but after last year, I wrote off the Rams heading into this season. It seems so obvious now that they are good, however. Matthew Stafford looks healthy and has two elite receiving weapons in Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Kyren Williams has taken over this running game and finished the season 3rd in total rushing yards, but accomplished this in fewer games than every other back in the top 25. He also led the league with 95.3 yards per game. Their young defense has also played up this year, and we know that Aaron Donald can take over a game, so this team seems to be figuring it out at just the right time.
They are a great story because it seemed like most people (or maybe just me) thought they would need a few years to be competitive again after trading away so much draft capital to win a championship, but they are ahead of schedule and should give the Lions a tough test this weekend.I can’t speak for everyone, but after last year I had written off the Rams heading into this season. It seems so obvious now that they are good, however. Matthew Stafford looks healthy, and has two elite receiving weapons in Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Kyren Williams has taken over this running game and finishes the season 3rd in total rushing yards, bt accomplished this in fewer games than every other back in the
11. Houston Texans
One of my favorite stories of the year is that rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud has helped lead the Houston Texans to the playoffs. I love this for DeMeco Ryans and for all of their young players who weren’t expected to do anything this year. Selfishly, I love this because Stroud looked like the more NFL-ready QB to me than Bryce Young, but I won’t take a full victory lap because I’m sure I have way more L’s to take as well. Regardless, they are top-15 in scoring offense and points allowed on defense, and they are +10 in the turnover battle. This team is disciplined, and C.J. Stroud is a gamer. I think he’ll make a good name for himself this weekend against the Browns, but Myles Garrett and co. will get to him one too many times, and this is why I can’t rank them higher.
Tier 4: We Are Just Happy To Be Here!
12. Pittsburgh Steelers
Mike Tomlin’s winning season streak is absurd, and I’m still surprised this team finished 10-7. But when you look at the defensive statistics, it’s still an elite unit. The problem, of course, is an offense that can run the ball well at times and hit a big pass play once in a while but is generally inefficient and inconsistent. Their defense will prevent them from being blown out, but I can’t trust their offense enough to rank them higher. Further, they will be without star T.J. Watt after his MCL sprain in Week 18. They are battle-tested in the tough AFC North Division, but it won’t be enough in the playoffs.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This team was supposed to be terrible, and I still am not fully sold on Baker Mayfield as a starting QB in the NFL. But they win the turnover battle, and Baker doesn’t need to be perfect with Mike Evans downfield. Their defense is still above average, and I credit them for getting here, but the NFC South is the worst division in football, in my opinion, so they don’t get much more credit than this. I’ve been egregiously referencing the running games of the top teams, so I have to point out here that Tampa Bay has one of the worst. They are dead last in yards per rush attempt and will have a hard time keeping drives alive in the post-season.
14. Green Bay Packers
This team is weird, and I suppose weird teams end up 9-8 and find a way into the playoffs. They have wins over the Chiefs, Rams, and Lions but losses to the Giants, Falcons, and Broncos. As a Vikings fan, I can’t bring myself to fully root for Packer-related things, and yet I find myself doling out much respect in the direction of Jordan Love. With the league’s youngest receiving corps, Jordan Love finished in the top 10 in completions, attempts, and yards and was second in the league with 32 passing touchdowns. He also threw just 11 interceptions, and the offense, in general, was fun and explosive, albeit inconsistent at times. Their defense also appeared inconsistent at times, but they finished 10th in scoring defense and were a top-10 unit in passing defense even after trading away starting CB Rasul Douglas. This team is definitely on the up and up, but to me is not ready to make a run. They are 28th in rushing yards allowed per game, and against the ground games of the teams higher in this ranking, they will struggle. I think they make it interesting in Dallas, but to me, they are the least powerful team in the playoffs. Having said that, Matt LaFleur deserves substantial praise for this season, and they will definitely be a factor in 2024.
How Did I Do?
Power rankings are hard because my personal bias and eye test point me in different directions than the statistics do, but I tried to be as consistent as possible in my rationale. While I think only the first two tiers of teams have realistic chances of winning it all, the beautiful thing about the playoffs is that anything can happen. So, happy Wild Card Weekend! Let me know what you love and hate about these rankings on Twitter, and be sure to follow us @bite_sizesports for other sports content!
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