After reaching the NFC Divisional Round last season, the Bucs are “running it back” with many familiar faces from last season, but is this the right call? Let’s try to figure that out together.

Key Core “Returnees” (a.k.a. Guys Who Could Have Easily Been Gone)

Baker Mayfield. The big one here is the commitment to Mayfield for three years and up to 115 million dollars. Is he worth it? Well, that’s up to you to decide; stay tuned for my opinion later in the article. Regardless, he did enough last year for Todd Bowles, Jason Licht, and Co. to give him the reins for the foreseeable future.

Antoine Winfield Jr. Sadly for me, the “AW Jr. going to his dad’s team (Vikings)” idea was destroyed when the Bucs franchise-tagged the playmaking safety. Good for the Bucs… for now.

Lavonte David. Jason Licht himself has dubbed Lavonte David “The Standard of Bucs’ Football,” and so Tampa Bay locked up their stalwart for at least this upcoming season.

Mike Evans. The greatest WR in Bucs’ history is back (though not quite my favorite, hello, Joey Galloway!) for another two years, and when you have a team running it back with a quarterback that…ahem…likes to take chances… Evans is one of the most essential returnees.

Chase McLaughlin. Do not scoff at the importance of the Kicker position, especially when your team isn’t necessarily dominant. McLaughlin got a vote of faith from the Tampa Bay brass after setting a club record for field goal percentage last year, representing another consistent returning piece.

Key New Guys

Jordan Whitehead. I love this move for the Bucs. Whitehead returns to Tampa after two successful seasons in New York, where he played and started in all 17 games each season. He brings top-level defensive acumen to an already solid defense, but one that does need to improve against the pass. I think pairing him with Antoine Winfield, Jr. is a smart play.

Ben Bredeson and Sua Opeta. The Buccaneers signed these two guards this offseason, and I’m lumping them together because adding to this offensive line is a good move in general. I also like that they got a couple of guards because at pick 26 in Round One of this year’s draft, there should still be a high-level talent at tackle available. This would be a smart way to take care of the offensive line by being able to draft a depth piece behind Tristan Wirfs.

Randy Gregory. I’m using the term “key” quite liberally here, I realize, but signing Gregory isn’t nothing. The Bucs added two talented rookies last year in the draft, Yaya Diaby and Calijah Kancey, on the defensive line, and I like this as a depth play. I expect them to take at least one EDGE player in the first four rounds of this year’s draft as well, so as a depth piece, Gregory could have at least a few moments of contribution.

The Case For Running It Back

Even with Kirk Cousins making Atlanta much more legitimate, this division is still mediocre at best. In my eyes, the Saints are a 9-8 or 8-9 team for the foreseeable future, and the Panthers are still a few decades away from contention. This Bucs team that beat the Eagles in the playoffs last season has a good shot of winning the NFC South again, and since the playoffs are a brand new season anyway, why not take your chance here?

Baker Mayfield has yet to prove to me that he can be a consistently prolific passer, but there is no doubt he is a gamer. He will give his all for this team, and chucking the ball deep to Mike Evans has proved effective enough in the past. If the Bucs draft enough complementary pieces, this offense can be close to average, and that may be enough. Further, new offensive coordinator Liam Coen comes from the McVay family. So he will undoubtedly coach with some similarities to previous OC Dave Canales, who worked with Shane Waldron in Seattle. In fact, Coen says in this Bucs Wire article that his running schemes will be similar. Keeping some semblance of continuity in the scheme here could really help this offense at least maintain the numbers they were able to put up last season. Another boost could come in a higher usage rate for Chris Godwin. Coen has mentioned that he thinks Godwin could be used similarly to Cooper Kupp, and increasing Godwin’s production in the right way couldbenefit this offense.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Buccaneers were seventh in scoring defense last season and were also plus eight in the turnover margin. They also boasted a top-10 rush defense. So, if they can shore up their passing defense, they will be well set up to weather any “Baking” catastrophes. This is also why I think they are looking for game-changers specifically. I would love to see them draft an Edgerrin Cooper with their first-round pick, even as a bit of a reach. This defense has veteran leadership (Vita Vea, Lavonte David, Jordan Whitehead, etc.), and now it needs some young players who can provide an immediate impact.

The Case For The Rebuild

Is this team really a contender? Baker Mayfield was just 19th in completion percentage last year, and for my two cents, his accuracy does not pass my eye test consistently. Further, unless they really focus on their running game in the draft, or OC Liam Coen brings with him the success he had with Kyren Williams in Los Angeles, I’m not sure there’s enough here to improve upon their abysmal rushing efficiency from last season. And, of course, if the aforementioned increase in production does not happen for Chris Godwin, there is a fear that Canales has already maxed out what this offense can be with Mayfield at the helm. Coen may be unable to make enough of a difference, especially if he keeps things too similar to the way they were last season. In other words, I’m not sure there should be a ton of confidence that this offense will take any significant steps forward, and that could be a problem for a team that relied on other teams’ mistakes a lot last season.

In fact, they had three games last season in which they did not record a takeaway, and they lost all three games. Added to that fact is their relatively soft schedule in the second half of last season when they surged into the playoffs. They finished the season winning five of six games, but only one of those wins was against a playoff team, the Green Bay Packers. They should get credit, though, because winning consecutive games in the NFL is no small task, but it must be noted that the run wasn’t exactly the type of dominance you want to see from an up-and-coming squad. The case for the rebuild here is that there is a fear that last season’s success was a mirage and that paying Baker Mayfield, Antoine Winfield, Jr., and others was not the right move.

My “Expert” Thoughts

And so, while the Buccaneers proved me wrong last season (see here a podcast where I advocate they were the worst team in the NFL heading into 2023), I have to think the game plan here should have been to manage their salary situations a bit better and work to get younger in this year’s draft and beyond. Baker Mayfield is now due 35 million dollars next season and 45 million after that. Chris Godwin has a 26 million dollar cap hit this year and an automatic 25 million in void year hits for 2025 and 2026. Vita Vea also carries slight increases in dead cap hits with each of the next two years.

Now, I’ll fully admit that I’m not a guru when it comes to the salary cap, and I know teams always tend to find ways to make it work, but what it comes down to for me is that this roster feels very average to be creating this two-ish year window to win now. They are definitely not the worst team in the NFL, but I can think of at least 10 teams better set up for success this year and next. Instead of paying Mayfield, I think the Bucs should have bolstered their roster with more youth from the draft and used one of their first or second-round picks on a quarterback to take a shot on.

Alright, Bucs fans, how far off am I? If they were my team, to be fair, I would be applauding the fact that they are still trying to win. But, as a casual observer, I don’t see this Tampa team doing anything aside from delaying a rebuild and being pretenders for the next three years. Let me know on X what you think, and also let us folks here at Bite Size Sports what other teams you would like to discuss!

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