What We’re Doing

Welcome to our NCAA Totals betting article.  As your author, I want you to get to know me and the process I have been building.  As a degenerate gambler and an avid Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) lover, I have been working on a process to live by for NCAA Basketball totals.  I have been playing DFS for nearly a decade now, mostly for the NFL, but I will dabble in other sports as well.  Make sure to follow me on X (@trevors_FF) for my DFS takes, but today is all about the best plays in college basketball.  

The Model

Once Football season ended last year, I found myself yearning for a good product and tool to bet on something.  As I began searching and dialing in different formulas, I found one that I have settled into and has worked quite well.  Last season, between February through the end of March Madness, the model hit at a 60% clip.  Since starting it back up again this season, around mid-January, it has been hitting at a 56% clip.  I am confident enough in this model that I am ready to pass along the plays for free to our readers at Bite-Size Sports!  

Recap

With just 4 plays for the sweet 16 we were not in a spot to win big but we still won.  The model plays going 2-2; and really 2-1 as I wouldn’t have shared the Creighton/Tennessee game if there were more model plays.  But the total did ultimately raise above the threshold we needed to make it a model play, therefore, we count it as a loss.  The only 2 unit play we had hit!  And with 1 of the 2 losses being that half unit play we shared, the model came out on top, netting us over 1 unit for the day!  

Through the first 3 rounds of the tournament we are 3-2 on Plays of the day and 10-8 overall.  We have at +3 Units on the tournament through the model! 

All tournament Recap:

POTD – LBSU vs Arizona – Under 163.5 ✅

POTD – Nevada vs Dayton – Over 136.5 ❌

POTD – Charleston vs Alabama – Under 173.5 ❌

POTD – Yale vs San Diego St – Over 128.5 ✅

POTD – Clemson vs Arizona – Under 152.5 ✅

Oregon vs South Carolina – Over 133.5 ✅

St. Peters vs Tennessee – Over 129.5 ✅

Samford vs Kansas – Under 153.5 ❌

Stetson vs UConn – Over 145.5 ❌

New Mexico vs Clemson – Under 151.5 ✅

Texas AM vs Nebraska – Over 146.5 ✅

Florida vs Colorado – Under 158.5 ❌

Dayton vs Arizona – Under 146.5  ✅

Marquette vs Colorado – Under 146.5 ❌

Grand Canyon vs Alabama – Under 168.5 ✅

Alabama vs UNC – Under 173.5 ❌ 

NC State vs Marquette – Under 150.5 ✅ 

½ unit play Creighton vs Tennessee – Under 143.5 ❌

Tournament to Date

POTD – 3-2 

All plays – 10-8

Year to Date

I am going to track our picks year to date from the date we started sharing an article (Feb 19th) which included Feb 18th plays as well. 

POTD – 29-14 67%

All Plays – 162 – 134 55%

Elite 8

As I mentioned in the Sweet 16 article with less games brings less plays, therefore, I will be sharing my other favorite plays as well.  I will ensure to distinctly show what plays are from the model vs what plays are just me and my gut.  

Uconn (-8.5) vs Illinois 155.5: 

UConn has been rolling through the tournament, looking like they are destined to repeat as National Champions.  It would be the first repeat National Champion since the ‘06-’07 Florida Gators repeated.  The next opponent in their way?  The Illini from Illinois who has controlled all 3 of their games and have looked good thus far.  The spread for UConn games continue to get lower but they have absolutely destroyed teams and blow the cover off the spread.  Two teams that can score with ease both averaging at least 85ppg over their last 5.  UConn has been a little better defensively than Illinois but they are not as good as the Iowa St Defense that the Illini hung 72 on.  I think this game paces up and hits the over, while the Illini keep it close.  But late in the game the experience of UConn becomes too much and they cover the 8.5 spread. 

Uconn -8.5

Over – 155.5

Clemson vs Alabama (-3.5) 164.6:

I have not been a believer in this Clemson team picking them to lose all 3 rounds and yet here they are battling in the Elite 8 and trying to become the first 6-seed to win it all.  Alabama on the other hand finally breaks through the sweet16 upsetting the Number 1 seed North Carolina in the best game of the round.  At this point we all know Alabama will shoot a 3 within 10 seconds of any possession.  Nate Oats loves his analytics and the players are perfectly suited for this style of play.  Even with the high flying style of play, 164.5 is not automatic for Alabama games.  Clemson on the other hand wants the game closer to 140 with their style of play.  They’re not a slow team but they won’t want this game becoming a track meet.  This total is the only of the 4 that the model has a play on we thats the under.  Whether Clemson slows it down or they don’t score to keep up I like the model play and I will also continue betting against Clemson.  

Alabama -3.5 

Under – 164.5 – Model play 

Tennessee vs Purdue (-3.5) 147.5:

A Sunday afternoon Matinee between the Volunteers and Boilmakers is looking like an absolute blast of a game.  This game (other than the one with my Dukies in it) is the one I am most looking forward to.  A 1 vs 3 matchup for a chance to make the Final Four!  They styles are similar here and I think the teams will be a little tight to start.  Tip off is 1:20pm cst after they both played evening games on Friday night.  Tennessee especially playing the latest game of the day and had a tight game against Creighton.  After a slow start I like the Tennessee guards to control this game and my gut says Tennessee wins.  Terrance Shannon Jr. has continued to be one of the best players in the country and this Purdue team is still suspect with guard play.  Give me the Volunteers to make the Final Four in a slower paced dawg fight. 

Tennessee ML +132

Under 147.5 

Duke (-6.5) vs NC State 142.5:

A rematch of the ACC Quarterfinals from just a few weeks ago, these two teams are playing for much more this time around! Not only is this a rematch but in fact, this is the 3rd time in the Month of March these two teams will clash.  As ACC foes these teams know each other very well and I don’t think styles of play will come into play too much here.  Just good ole fashioned roundball as a nightcap on the Elite 8.  The last two times these teams met they split the matchups and played both to a 143 total.  So Vegas setting this line at 142.5 isn’t too surprising!  So who wins?  We’ve got the cinderella, and everyone comparing them to 1983, NC State Wolfpack in the red corner.  And in the blue corner the only Blue Blood left in the tournament and my beloved Duke Blue Devils.  NC State lead by the big man in the middle DJ Burns, don’t be fooled by his big stature, this dude can flat ball.  If you leave him 1 on 1 he will back you down and score, if you double him he’s a phenomenal passer.  Duke is lead by 2nd year star Kyle Filipowski who is coming off his best game in the tournaments.  Duke is the better overall talented team and has the experience with guys like Ryan Young, Mark Mitchel and guard Jeremy Roach.  Do you think the cinderella run continues?  I don’t, Duke’s coaching staff clearly made defense the point of emphasis coming off the NC State loss in the ACC tournament.  Duke hasn’t allowed more than 55 points to an opponent through 3 rounds and they have continue to be offensively talented enough to win games.  Houston was a tough opponent, it was an absolute fist fight and Duke held their own.  I think they are ready for the moment and will put out the Wolfpack packing.   

Duke -6.5 

Under – 142.5 

It’s always amazing how quickly this tournament goes from 68 teams, an 11am tipoff on a Thursday morning to just 4 teams left headed to the promised land.  That’s where we will be come Sunday night.  Follow me on X to see how you can win $20!  Enjoy the rest of the games and as always may the money be in your favor. 

Tail at your own risk, and thank you for supporting Bite-Size Sports.  I hope I can do the research and provide the model plays to help you win some money!  Welcome to the ride as we get into the pinnacle of college basketball season.